Tinubu Inherited a Big Mess—But Has He Made It Worse? Dr. Sobowale Speaks.

President Bola Tinubu’s time in office has been marked by heated debate about the state of Nigeria’s economy, security, and the overall wellbeing of its citizens. According to Dr. Dele Sobowale, respected economist and columnist, Tinubu inherited a “big mess”—but he also played a role in creating it, and so far, his actions may have made things even more complicated.

“Indeed, President Bola Tinubu inherited a big mess. It must be stated that he inherited a big mess from somebody he installed in office. So, he was the architect of his own misfortune, in many respects.” Dr. Sobowale Stated

Sobowale’s main criticism is that Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda is built on political promises rather than sound economic planning. He described the manifesto as “hogwash,” full of pledges that cannot be kept, and warned that no government can build a strong economy on a foundation that is already broken. “He allowed too much politics to get in the way of a sound economic programme. He made promises that could not be fulfilled,” Sobowale said.

A key example is the oil production target. The Renewed Hope agenda promised Nigeria would produce and export 2.06 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2025, but the country has averaged only about 1.5 million barrels per day during Tinubu’s first two years. “He is even talking about 4 million barrels by 2027. We will never get there. It is not a curse; it is just a fact because the figure is unrealistic,” Sobowale argued.

Sobowale also criticized Tinubu for appointing too many of his former Lagos State allies to federal positions, saying, “Lagos is not Nigeria, Nigeria is not Lagos. A good commissioner in Lagos State might not be a good minister at the federal level. At the federal level, you need people who have some kind of experience for years.”

On security, Sobowale painted a grim picture. Drawing on his years living and working in northern Nigeria, he described how the country’s porous borders and multiple ethnic conflicts have overwhelmed security forces. “Our security forces are overwhelmed. They really do not know who to really defend against… When they demoralise the Army, the Police and the Air force, then the entire country becomes defenseless. That is my biggest concern,” he said.

Sobowale also questioned the wisdom of pardoning thousands of “repentant” Boko Haram fighters and returning them to their communities, warning that such moves could create even more problems for security forces and ordinary Nigerians.

Turning to the economy, Sobowale compared government budgets to company revenue targets. He argued that Nigerian governments have a long history of making promises they cannot keep, especially when it comes to oil production and revenue. “Since 2013, when Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala first put in a budget with 2 mbpd of crude oil, every government has been using 2 mbpd, and not a single day in the 12 years to date have we achieved that target. Why do we continue to use it?” he asked.

“It is so full of many promises that cannot possibly be redeemed. It was more or less a political document that somebody wanted to build an economic programme upon. No one can build a sound economic programme on what is essentially a political document,” Sobowale emphasized.

Sobowale believes that unless Nigeria’s leaders start making realistic plans and setting achievable targets, the country will continue to struggle. He called for downsizing government, more honest budgeting, and a shift away from empty promises to real, measurable progress.

Conclusion:
Dr. Sobowale’s assessment of Tinubu’s economic performance is clear: while the president inherited serious problems, his approach—relying on political promises and familiar allies—has not delivered the needed reforms. Without a new focus on realistic planning, experienced leadership, and honest communication, Nigeria’s economy and security will remain at risk. As the country looks ahead to the next two years, the challenge for Tinubu is not just to fix what he inherited, but to break the cycle of unrealistic promises and deliver real change.

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